Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 101-67 roll

The Baltimore Ravens will be out for revenge when they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs handed Baltimore one of its two losses last season, and after getting knocked out of the playoffs early by the Titans, the Ravens have a chip on their shoulder. They have outscored their first two opponents 71-22, and reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson will try to outshine 2020 Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in the final game of Week 3.

a football player holding a bat on a field: Sep 20, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during overtime at SoFi Stadium.

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Sep 20, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during overtime at SoFi Stadium.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 54.5. Before making any Ravens vs. Chiefs picks of your own, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 5-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 3 on an incredible 101-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Ravens vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Now, here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Ravens:

  • Chiefs vs. Ravens spread: Baltimore -3.5
  • Chiefs vs. Ravens over-under: 54.5
  • Chiefs vs. Ravens money line: Baltimore -170, Kansas City +150
  • BAL: Set an NFL record with 3,296 rushing yards last season.
  • KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least six receptions in 10 of the past 12 games.

Why the Ravens can cover

Baltimore is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 against the AFC, and Jackson has thrown for 479 yards and leads the team with 99 rushing yards. The run game has been a staple for Baltimore, and J.K. Dobbins was taken in the second round of the draft to join Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards in the backfield. Each of the running backs has at least 70 yards this season, and Ingram rushed for 103 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s loss to the Chiefs.

The Ravens are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. They have a trio of weapons who can get downfield, with receivers Marquise Brown and Willie Snead combining for 16 catches for 236 yards, while tight end Mark Andrews has added six for 87 yards. The defense can cause havoc, with rookie linebacker Patrick Queen (team-high 17 tackles) and end Calais Campbell joining a unit that ranked fourth in total yards (300.6) in 2019.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five Monday night games and has beaten the Ravens in three straight meetings. That includes a 33-28 victory last season, when Mahomes threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns despite not having injured top receiver Tyreek Hill. The speedster leads the team with 10 catches for 145 yards and two touchdowns, while fellow receivers Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson also can do damage. 

The Chiefs, who are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games overall, also have All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce (15 catches, 140 yards) and rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who rushed for 138 yards in Week 1. Kansas City’s defense bottled up Jackson last season and has been getting after quarterbacks thus far with six sacks, led by Chris Jones’ 1.5.

How to make Chiefs vs. Ravens picks 

The model is leaning Under, saying Jackson will have a subpar game for Baltimore, while the Chiefs will struggle to run the ball. It also has generated an against the spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see it here.

So who wins Ravens vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Ravens spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 101-67 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.

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