2020 NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 1 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat take the floor in Game 1 of the 2020 NBA Finals on Wednesday evening. The Lakers toppled the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals, enjoying three days of rest after advancing. The Heat needed six games to defeat the Boston Celtics, leaving Miami with only two days of rest between series.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists Los Angeles as a five-points favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. The over-under for total points is set at 218. Before making any Heat vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -5
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 218 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -200, Heat +175
  • LAL: The Lakers are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are led by two of the best players in the NBA in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. James, in search of his fourth championship ring, is averaging 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game, and the future Hall of Fame forward also helps to key the defense. Davis is the defensive anchor for the Lakers, and he is also incredibly productive, averaging 28.8 points and 9.3 rebounds per game in the playoffs. 

Los Angeles owns the best net rating in the playoffs by a comfortable margin, outpacing its opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions, and the Lakers rank as a top-five team on both offense and defense. They are facing a tremendous offensive team in the Heat, but Los Angeles ranks near the top of the league in shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation, with elite rim protection to keep Miami out of the paint. 

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has saved its best for the postseason, tying the Lakers for the best win-loss record (12-3) in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. Miami is a tremendous offensive team, scoring 113.4 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, and the Heat have terrific balance. Goran Dragic narrowly leads the team in scoring at 20.9 points per game in the playoffs, with Jimmy Butler adding 20.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists and Bam Adebayo contributing 18.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists and tremendous defense. 

As a team, the Heat produce an elite 65.9 assist rate and a tremendous 1.86-to-1 ratio when comparing assists to turnovers. Miami is also a top-two team in both free-throw creation and accuracy, helping to result in a stellar 58.9 true shooting percentage. Defensively, Miami is also feisty, ranking third among playoff teams in shooting efficiency allowed and fourth in steals at 7.5 per game.

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma and Butler projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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